..who linked to the Cases and Deaths chart.
Two deaths and 5 new confirmations tip the numbers above 100
..avian influenza A(H7N9) cases. Nothing has changed since yesterday, apart from Zhejiang province now surpassing Shanghai municipality in the total number of cases reported and accelerating (see chart below) in case numbers at a very rapid rate.
Still, but a 3-digit number tends to sound more scary to some - so expect the media to carry big banner headlines akin to "100 cases of killer virus in three weeks!"
Still, but a 3-digit number tends to sound more scary to some - so expect the media to carry big banner headlines akin to "100 cases of killer virus in three weeks!"
FluTrackers notes a new province has been added.
The H7N9 outbreak welcomes Shandong, about 870km north-west of Shanghai and 420km south of Beijing; population >95,000,000, of whom 1 (37M) is now confirmed as being H7N9-positive.
Given the rate of case reports from Zhejiang, I'm surprised we haven't heard from provinces further south such as Jiangxi or Fujian.
H7N9 and the tendency for males to predominate in case and fatality numbers.
The H7N9 graphs highlight that cases and deaths are occurring in males more than females. We often see more males than females in hospital presentations for acute respiratory illnesses. Why this is so is not known for certain.
Published research from Prof John Upham in Queensland, Australia shows a difference in the immune response to rhinovirus, the virus responsible for triggering most asthma attacks, between males and females in that females stronger response cleans up the virus, probably related to sex hormones.
Perhaps this can be extended to influenzavirus infections also.
Published research from Prof John Upham in Queensland, Australia shows a difference in the immune response to rhinovirus, the virus responsible for triggering most asthma attacks, between males and females in that females stronger response cleans up the virus, probably related to sex hormones.
This was supported by research from Dr Scotland in London, United Kingdom who found that female mice had more white blood cells and that these were more effective and less over-reactive than male cells in responding to invaders.
Perhaps this can be extended to influenzavirus infections also.
H7N9 and the skewed age issue.
We are reading much about the older than expected ages of those infected by H7N9 (current average case age of 58 years). Why? One school of thought is that the elderly have weaker, or perhaps "less experienced" immune defences.
But there are many other risk factors for severe complications arising after influenzavirus infection including heart and other organ disease, things which may accumulate with age.
This shift is not uncommon among pandemic influenzaviruses - those settling in to a new host. Also worth noting: (1) seasonal influenza is commonly regarded as having its worst impact in those over 65 years of age, (2) influenza A(H5N1) virus (the other bird flu) has had its biggest impact in pre-adults and young adults (15-39)(3) the influenza A(H1N1)pdm virus (swine flu) had its greatest impact on children and young adults and(4) influenza A(H7N7) virus was confirmed in 89 people (average age 30 years among mostly workers culling chickens), mostly mild, including conjunctivitis.
That' a lot of diversity. Begs the question of whether we can predict too much about H7N9 until we've lived with it a bit longer.
This shift is not uncommon among pandemic influenzaviruses - those settling in to a new host. Also worth noting: (1) seasonal influenza is commonly regarded as having its worst impact in those over 65 years of age, (2) influenza A(H5N1) virus (the other bird flu) has had its biggest impact in pre-adults and young adults (15-39)(3) the influenza A(H1N1)pdm virus (swine flu) had its greatest impact on children and young adults and(4) influenza A(H7N7) virus was confirmed in 89 people (average age 30 years among mostly workers culling chickens), mostly mild, including conjunctivitis.
That' a lot of diversity. Begs the question of whether we can predict too much about H7N9 until we've lived with it a bit longer.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Welcome to the end of the third week.
Three weeks since the WHO was notified of the newly emerged avian influenza A(H7N9) virus.
Today the case tally sits at 97 confirmation including 18 deaths, an asymptomatic case, three family clusters, no proven or sustained human-to-human transmission, no clear host in poultry or wild birds or pigs (all things that history or H7N9 genetic sequences indicate should be hosting infection).
Today the case tally sits at 97 confirmation including 18 deaths, an asymptomatic case, three family clusters, no proven or sustained human-to-human transmission, no clear host in poultry or wild birds or pigs (all things that history or H7N9 genetic sequences indicate should be hosting infection).
