Ebolaradication around the corner..?

The downward trend for new, confirmed, Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases continues as we can see in the graph below.

This graph plots the number (each blue data point or dot) of newly confirmed cases in each World Health Organization situation report of summary. The joining lines don't mean anything (the WHO doesn't provide any numbers to place between dots)- they just make it cleared how think go up and down. You can see a little about Monday'itis and its role in the bumpy road to zero cases here.

Below is part of one of the charts from my Ebola virus disease numbers page -  you can get to it from any page on this blog by clicking on that tab up there^.

The line indicating the linear trend of fewer cases over time has a p-value of  0.023 and was
calculated within Tableau Public Edition v9.0
Click on image to enlarge.

I've zoomed in the graph to highlight distinct data points (thanks to Ramon i.e. @HlthAnalysis for helping me learn to make the separately coloured dots I missed so much from my Excel graphs). Without the zooming we can see from the full dataset that it's getting a bit hard to see each data point as time goes by, and case numbers shrink (yay!).

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Case number changes between Ebola virus disease reports...

This is one of my favourite charts for following the Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa because it shows how things are changing from report to report. 

It plots the total number of suspected, probable and laboratory-confirmed cases between reports - which is a measure of change over time that is not cumulative.

That's not to say that understanding this chart is easy for everyone...as with everything, what you take away from it may be heavily influenced by your own perspective and your background in reading graphs. I have written something about how to read some of the graphs on my blog here, which may be helpful too.

Uses World Health Organization data up to and including the Situation Report from the 5th-Sept, 2014.
Click on chart to enlarge.

I've marked up the last three periods between reports to highlight that the time changes differently. You can see this for yourself if you look carefully at the horizontal or "x" axis (the one that has the dates) and look at where each dot lines up with its date. Some are further apart than others. 

You can also mouse over the dots on the interactive version of the graph here. That will tell you the dates. THe subtraction is up to you though!

The lines joining the dots here suggest what is happening between the WHO Reports, but the line do not actually use any real collected values...because we don't have them to plot. 

Technically, a bar graph would be more accurate, but I find a line graph easier to read at a glance. So do remember - we don't know what is happening between those dots. We're just presuming it.

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H7N9 cases in China to be reported weekly instead of daily.

Well that will let the guys at FluTrackers get some more sleep. Mike at Avian Flu Diary(who could probably do with some sleep too) notes it might not have a real impact on provincial reports but time will tell. The info is nestled at the bottom of this report.

This is a real shame for the public who have been getting access to some great real-time data break-downs, assemblies and interpretations from the flublogians. 

Realistically, its not like we're entitled to these detailed data from China. It all takes work (and workers) to compile, release the number and organize and hold the official press conferences etc...but in the age of "always on" and instant internet gratification...I think we feel that is how it should be.

We would feel entitled to the information if it were a story about a terrorist act or the latest comings and goings of a public figure or personality, or sports scores. Its been nice to see something as important as the emergence of a new human pathogen receiving the attention it has...at least so far.

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