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Building Surgical Partnerships in Uganda

Uganda Blog

11/15/14 
It is my first day in Uganda.

I spent the last week in Dubai working on the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery.  It was a wonderful week.  I got to meet some of the leaders in global surgery, many of them my heroes in this new field we are trying to define.  We spent every day going over the reviewers comments on our commission report and discussing how to address those comments.  Every evening was a chance to meet and talk with the commissioners and every evening was spent soaking up the many distractions Dubai has to offer.  It was a full and exhausting week.

At the conclusion of this exhausting week I got on a plane for Entebbe, and the next phase of my global surgery journey.  I arrived in Entebbe and was immediately reminded on the biggest issue in health on this continent � Ebola.  As we entered the airport we were immediately greeted by nurses in masks and thermometers checking us for signs or symptoms of infection.  Even here in Uganda, thousands of miles from the nearest cases in West Africa, the fear is present.  Perhaps it is not without some merit.  Uganda has had several small outbreaks of Ebola over the last few decades and just a few weeks ago a case of Marburg was discovered not far from here.  Still, the scene at the airport seems more of a show of force than an actual public health measure.  I�m not sure how well the thermometers work and the questions are rudimentary at best.

From Entebbe our group will head to the Mbarara, the largest town in Southwest Uganda.  My companions on this trip include Dr Jim Cusack and his wife.  Dr Cusack is a surgical Oncologist at MGH and the faculty leader of our Global Surgical Iniitiative.  Tiffany Chao is a 4th year surgical resident how is very experienced in global health and will spend a month in Uganda on a clinical rotation.  Charles Liu is an HMS student who is taking a year off to do work on a surgical database in Mbarara.  Charles has already been in Uganda for 5 months and just left for the week to attend the conference in Dubai.  Finally, there is Liz, a medical oncologist from Boston who spends much of her time in Botswana.  She is traveling to Mbarara to help us with discussions about starting a cancer center in the town.

On our car ride to Mbarara we stop at the equator.  I realize that this is my first time crossing the equator on land.  If I were in the navy we would have a line crossing ceremony and I would now be a shellback and no longer a pollywog.  From what I have heard of those ceremonies I am glad I am not in the Navy.






11/16
Today we arrived in Mbarara and had quite the welcome at the MGH guest house.  There is a reasonably large number of ex patriots in town this week and we arrived just in time for a dinner party.  There were about 25 ex-pats in attendance and we had beer, corn hole, several people broke out guitars and we feasted on steaks and bananas foster.  This was not the type of food I was expecting in Uganda.  I�m a little concerned it will be all down hill from here!




11/17
Today we start the process of partnership building.  This will be a large part of my mission here on this trip and will be the focus of our first few days.  We started our meetings with the leadership of the hospital.  I have learned that this type of partnership, especially in Ugandan culture, mandates many formal meetings with all the key people, and many of those who will only pay a peripheral role.  The meetings went fairly well today and we will have another full day of meetings tomorrow.  The goal of these meetings is to establish a formal partnership between the departments of surgery at MGH and at Mbarara University of Science and Technology (MUST). There is actually a slightly complex leadership structure here because the hospital � Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) and MUST have separate leadership structures, separate employees and separate pay structures within the same hospital.  This exists because MRRH is under the Ministry of Health (MoH) and MUST is under the Ministry of Education (MoE).  I will have to learn to navigate this complex arrangement if I am going to be effective here.

Our second evening in Mbarara was just as fun as our first.  Tonight we attended an �aerobics� class, my first ever.   It was in a nightclub, the class was full of overweight, middle aged Uganda�s in all ranges of dress.  The class started with �Call me Maybe� and the music just got better from there.  We did all kinds crazy exercises including arm swinging, back arches and running in a circle.  It was amazing.


11/18
Today I attended morning rounds in the Accident and Emergency (A&E) department prior to our meetings.  It was an insightful glimpse into the type of pathology I can expect to see while working here.  There were several patients that needed to go to the OR.  Unfortunately, for the third time in five days the OR�s were canceled for all but the most emergent cases as the hospital had no power.  Over the past several months this canceling of OR cases has been a common occurance.  Even if the hospital has power it frequently runs out of oxygen or halothane or other items essential for surgery.  I have learned that even though most cases here are done under spinal anesthesia, and therefore require no oxygen, the anesthesiologist will not do a case unless there is oxygen as back up in case the case can�t be done with just a spinal.


11/19
Today we had power, oxygen and halothane!  Tiffany was able to do several cases.  She did 2 craniectomies with one of the surgeons here that has had extra training in neurosurgery.  There is a huge need for neurosurgery here.  Much of this need is driven by the huge burden of motorcycle trauma.  The majority of the vehicles on the road are motorcycles, or Boda Bodas.  These are invariably used as taxis, always without helmets and driven on poor roads without traffic rules.  The result of this is numerous closed head injuries and the need for neurosurgeons.  This is further complicated by the problems with the CT scanner.  MRRH has a CT scanner but it has been down for the last several months.  Even when it is running there is often no IV contrast.  So now, if a patient needs a CT of their head after getting in a Boda Boda accident their family needs to go sell some possessions, carry their loved one into town, get a private CT scan and bring back the patient and the films to be reviewed in the hospital.


11/20
We left to head back to Kampala today.  We are attempting to establish a Cancer Center in Mbarara.  Currently, there is only one center in the country, the Ugandan Cancer Institute (UCI) in Kampala.  The Ugandan government is interested in establishing several regional cancer centers and they want the first one to be in Mbarara.  We met with leadership from the MoH and the UCI to work on plans for this center.


11/21
Today we went to the national referral hospital in Kampala.  This is the largest and best-equipped hospital in the country.  It is also associated with a medical school � Makerere.  This school and hospital has established partnerships with several US academic centers including UCSF and Yale.  We met with the leadership of the Department of Surgery there to learn more about their partnerships and also to see how we could work together on a more national scale.  In particular, we are interested in trauma education.  The surgeons at MUST told us that it is their number one priority and asked us for help.  We met with the surgeons at Makerere and they would also like help in training their trainers for the trauma and critical care course they have developed for their surgical residents.




11/23
I said good-bye to Dr Cusack, his wife and Liz yesterday as they departed to head back to Boston.  Today I will journey back to Mbarara.


11/24
Most of our meetings are now complete and today I transitioned my focus to clinical and research work.  On rounds we found a man that had fallen off a ladder two weeks ago.  Since then he has had a swelling in the left upper quadrant of his abdomen that has gotten larger and larger and was associated with pain an bruising of his abdomen.  It is clear, even without the aid of modern imaging technology, that this man has a splenic injury and a dangerously enlarging hematoma.  He taken to the OR later that day for a splenectomy.  The hematoma ruptured intra-op which made the operation more challenging especially since they had no suction in the OR.

On rounds we also found 3 Boda Boda accident victims, a man with penile cancer, a man who was attacked by someone throwing acid on his face, a perforated gastric ulcer that also went to the OR and a child with septic arthritis of his hip.

After rounds Tiffany went to the OR and I went to ward rounds to help out the intern.  Every morning after A&E rounds the interns are divided up to help in the various areas of the hospital.  This was our first morning with interns as they have been on strike for the past month.  It is the end of November and the interns have not received a pay check since they started in July.  After a month of strikes the government finally agreed to pay at least two months of the interns salary.  This was enough to end the strike and today we have 6 interns on our team. 

These are not surgical interns.  In Uganda, after medical school a new doctor does a rotating internship spending several months on medicine, surgery, OBGYN and pediatrics.  After one year they are then sent to a district hospital to work for one to two years before they can go to residency.  Residency is typically three years, no matter what specialty you choose.  Further, fellowship level training, often requires leaving Uganda to places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa or Europe.  Few doctors get this level of training and of the ones that leave for this training even fewer return to serve in Uganda.


11/25
Today I helped one of the interns again on ward rounds.  One intern helps in the clinic, one in the OR, two stay in A&E and the last two go to the ward.  One rounds alone on the male ward and the other on the female ward.  Despite there only being 20 beds there are typically 30-40 patients on each ward.  Patients can be found in beds, behind beds, on the floor and every other place they can find a spot to lay down.  There is also only one nurse for each ward.  These nurses do not do the typical work we associate with nursing care in the US.  Rather, they function more as ward managers.  The families are the ones who walk the patients, help with their dressings and feed them.  If a patient needs a medication the family gets a prescription and then goes to town to buy the medication.  The role of the family, or �attendant,� is so important that often a patient will not be allowed to be admitted without one.


11/26
The highlights on A&E rounds today included a child with a perforated terminal ileum.  He was our third patient with this problem this week!  I have never seen this in the US except in cancer patients on chemotherapy.  After discussing this with the surgeons here in Uganda and doing a little reading I have learned that this is an incredibly common problem.  It is one of the most common reasons for a patient in Uganda to present with an acute abdomen.  The cause in most cases is presumed to be typhoid ileitis.  This is a condition leads to terrible morbidity and is associated with a 30% mortality.  This is such a big problem with so much room for improvement in management that it has been highlighted as an area for research by the surgeons here in Mbarara.  They want to start a randomized controlled trial to compare different surgical techniques for managing this disease.  They have asked for help from some of the surgeons and residents at MGH with the design and conduction of this trial.  I am very excited to be part of this project.  Often research work in the US means changing a wound infection rate from 3.2% to 2.9%.  But here in Africa we have the chance to make a difference in serious morbidity and mortality.  This trial will certainly have challenges � it will involve two IRB�s on different contenents, we will have to consent patients in their own language (and Uganda has many), we will need someone available at all hours to help with the study protocols and we will have to get the surgeons to agree to take this extra step in patient management.  This is not a small task for a system and surgeons that are already heavily over burdened by just the usual patient care.


11/27
            Today was a busy one for A&E rounds.  We saw a perforated gastric ulcer, an adhesive SBO, a closed head injury (CHI) after a car accident, a patient with a CHI after falling off the back of a truck, a young woman with gastric CA, a man with ascities from metastic cancer of some type, two Boda Boda accident victims with CHI and one with a femur fracture, and urinary retention from benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH).  This last gentleman received a suprapubic catheter to drain his urine.  There are almost no urologists in the country and patients with BPH have no surgical options.  Their prostate has grown so large that it has completely blocked off their urethra and they are unable to urinate.  The bladder swells causing pain and urine back up can lead to serious kidney damage.  In this resource constrained setting these patients are treated by inserting a catheter directly through their abdominal wall into the bladder.  For these patients this catheter becomes a permanent part of their abdominal wall.


11/28
            Today was another busy one in the OR.  There was another child with a perforated terminal ileum. He was taken to the OR for a bowel resection and a temporary ileostomy.  After the OR he was taken back to A&E.  There is no post operative anesthesia unit (PACU) and patients on the ward receive so little care that it is only suitable for the most stable patients.  All but the most stable post operative patients go back to A&E for monitoring for one to two days.  Sick patients that are discovered on the ward are also transferred back to A&E.  This is the only place in the hospital with a doctor and a nurse available around the clock.


11/29    
            It is another weekend and this time I head with a group from the MGH guesthouse to the impenetrable forrest to trek for Gorillas.  The forest was never reached by the last ice age and is therefore one of the oldest in the world.  After hiking with a park ranger for about three or four hours through dense forest we find a family of gorillias.  The family is 10 gorillas headed by a dominant male �silver back.�  There are only 900 mountain gorillas left in the world.  Almost all of these are in this region of Africa in the mountains of Uganda, Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo.  We got within five meters of these massive animals.  It was an amazing experience.

            After returning from the trek we made it back just in time for the huge Thanksgiving celebration.  We invited all the ex-pats in Mbarara over to the guesthouse for a huge dinner.  About 40 people showed up for a pot-luck style dinner.  Good food, drinks and friends.  If you can�t have thanksgiving with your family back in the US, surely this is the next best thing.





11/30          
            Sunday�s highlight was a game of Frisbee in the afternoon. 


12/1          
            Tiffany went back to Boston over the weekend so I am the sole MGH surgical representative left in Mbarara.  We had another patient on A&E rounds with �peritonitis.�  Here in Mbarara imaging is often not an option so a patient that presents with peritonitis often gets a trop to the OR.  This surprised me and thought there would be a significant number of negative explorations but serious pathology is almost always found.  This is not universal; I did witness an exploration for pancreatitis last week.  But that is the only negative exploration I have seen so far. 
           
            I helped one of the Ugandan surgeons in the OR with the patient with peritonitis.  After opening we found a sigmoid volvulus with necrotic colon and feculent ascites.  We performed a Hartman�s procedure and then transferred the patient back to A&E.





12/2
            We rounded on the volvulus patient from yesterday in A&E.  He was doing well and appeared very stoic.  I asked about his post operative pain regimen.  I was again surprise to learn that the typical regimen for patients is rectal Paracetemol.  And that�s it!  Opiates are hard to find and when they can be given they usually are not because patients cannot be monitored closely.  All of these patients who get large open operations for severely painful conditions suffer soundlessly with just Tylenol to ease the pain.


12/3         
            All the OR cases were canceled again today because the hospital was out of oxygen.  Since I couldn�t help in the OR I went to ward rounds.  I met one of the interns who had just admitted a patient to the ward from clinic who had a large inguinal hernia.  I asked why he was being admitted instead of being scheduled for an elective operation, as we would do in the US.  The inconsistencies with power, oxygen and Halothane make it incredibly difficult to schedule elective cases.  It is often easier to admit the patient to the ward and have the patient wait, often for many days, until OR space opens up and they can get their operation.


12/4
            After rounds this morning I went across the street to a coffee shop and restaurant known as the Ark.  This is one of the few places with free wifi and good food and is therefore tremendously popular with the ex-pat community.  I was able to skype into my weekly meeting with the Program for Global Surgery and Social Change in Boston.  The connection was choppy but got the job done.

            For dinner I met with some of the leadership in the department of surgery here to discuss the development of an annual membership agreement.  We drew up the draft of a document that would lay out the plans for the partnership between MGH and MUST over the next year.  This is a non-binding document that will allow us to put our goals down on paper and then have a benchmark that we can use at the end of the year to evaluate how the partnership has progressed.  I will bring this draft back to Boston with me and we hope to have a final copy signed by both departments by year�s end.


12/5
            I was helping the pediatric surgeon and a visiting pediatric surgeon from Candada with a recto-vaginal fistula case.  This condition can occur in children infected with HIV.  Towards the end of the case one of the interns came up to the OR for help.  There was a patient down in A&E in respiratory distress.  This patient also had HIV and had a massive purulent pleural effusion.  The intern needed help placing a tube into the patient�s chest to drain the build up of pus that was making it difficult for the patient to breath.  I scrubbed out of the case and left to help the intern.  On the way down to A&E the intern informed me that the hospital was out of chest tubes.  We put our heads together for a few minutes and came up with the idea of using an endotracheal tube as a substitute.  This is a tube typically placed down a patients throat to help with breathing.  I had never improvised a chest tube like this but after finding a large endotracheal tube I thought it was worth a try.  We found the man in significant respiratory distress.  He was emaciated and covered in Kaposi�s sarcoma lesions, another visible hallmark of late stage AIDS.  I was surpised to see how well the endotracheal tube worked as a chest tube.  Almost immediately the tube drained several hundred millileters of pus from the man�s chest.  His breathing improved instantly.  The next issue was no pleuravac (a chamber used to collect the pus and as a one-way valve for the chest tube).  Using some suction tubing, tape and a couple of water bottles we were also able to improvise a container for the chest tube.  Amazingly, the whole contraption worked remarkably well.





12/6
            My time in Mbarara is almost over.  I spent the morning packing and played another game of Frisbee in the afternoon.  This evening I went out for a drink with one of the Ugandan surgical residents.  We discussed the challenges of practicing medicine in this setting.  I learned that he is very interested in research and we discussed how we could work together on projects in the future.  He seemed very interested in collaboration.


12/7
            I drove back to Kampala today.  I got there in time to meet up with Lisa, an infectious disease and critical care resident at MGH who was spending the year in Mbarara.  She had been in the US for Thanksgiving and was on her way back.  We had dinner and discussed the challenges with doing research projects in Mbarara.  She gave me some excellent tips on getting grants and working with the Ugandans on research.



12/8
            I had went back to Mulago, the National Hospital in Kampala.  I met with the surgeons again to discuss plans for our trauma team visit next year.  In the afternoon I drove on to Entebbe.


12/9

            This morning I got on a Rwanda Air flight to Accra and the next step of my global surgery journey.  There I will interview surgeons and educators in Ghana about their efforts to establish the Ghana college of Physicians and Surgeons.  They have had remarkable success in stemming the �brain drain� of physicians out of Ghana.  My goal is to learn how they were able to accomplish this and to write a case study about it.

It's Christmas time...

Below is my attempt to try an make the BandAid30 lyrics a little more relevant and specific to the West African Ebola virus disease epidemic. 

I'm not musician, or poet - as you may tell - but I like these lyrics more...and they scan for me!

I've tried to build this while listening to my bought version of the latest BandAid song from iTunes or you can watch the video for the tune - just yell these lyrics over the top!!

It's Christmas time
Sometimes it hard not to be afraid
At Christmas time
We let in light and we banish shade
And in our world of plenty
We can spread a smile of joy
Throw your arms around the world 
At Christmas time

But say a prayer
Pray for less lucky ones
At Christmas time it�s hard
But while you're having fun
Remember a world outside your window
That it's a world less safe than here
Where a farewell kiss can kill you
And that death is much more near
And muddy roads all over
Cause delays that can spell doom
Well tonight we look around
To help you

Bring health and joy this Christmas
To West Africa
A song of hope when hope seems rare tonight (ooh)
Touch now to be spared
Cause that�s how virus is spread
How can you show you want to help at all?

Here's to you
Donate funds for everyone
Here's to them
And all their years to come
Show them that it's Christmas time for all

Come on world
Let�s show them we want to help
Rise up world
Let�s help build a safer place to
Heal the world
Let all know we care for you 
Heal the world
Let them know it�s Christmas time

Come on world
Let�s show them we want to help build
Rise up world
Let�s help build a stronger place to
Heal the world
Let all know we care for you 
Heal the world

Christmas 2014: give the gift of help...

I wrote a little guide back in August listing some places where one could donate if seeking to help out in the battle to contain Ebola virus and try and prevent more loss of life due to Ebola virus disease (EVD). 

With Christmas day nearly upon us, and many who read this blog likely to be doing something to celebrate it involving the giving of gifts to friends and loved ones, please think about donating to help the fight. 

You can easily add a donation, in the name of your friend or loved one, to help a range of organisations help save lives. I've re-posted my earlier list below in case you need some ideas. These donations can be made online-you can even get in a little Christmas craft and make a "voucher" tells the recipient what they did to help!

And the donation does not need to be limited to EVD of course! These organisations supply aid in many ways to those in all sorts of need. They also have a good record of getting that help to where it really needs to go. In some cases you can see that these guys spend most of your donation on tangible items and real aid - not on administration - a good thing to look out for. 

Ebola double vision is clearing...

A quick follow up from my post in October entitled "Ebola double vision".

I've adjusted that graph and it adds another view of how the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic is, in terms of overall case numbers, showing consistent signs of slowing. 

The time it takes for the case total to double (the doubling time) has stretched out from doubling every month or so, to taking about a month and a half to double.

But far from breathing a sigh of relief, the numbers in Guinea, which have never appeared consistently under control, and the still very high numbers in Sierra Leone, highlight that the epidemic is not yet leashed and the need remains for continued vigilance and more of the same hard and risky work being done by those in and around the region. In Liberia, the country that supplied the highest proportion of EVD cases leading up right up until this month, case numbers were down to just 75 in the previous week (reporting week #38). For context, that's still higher than the total of about 15 past outbreaks since 1976. And of course, this entire epidemic started from just 1 case. 100% of infected people need to be isolated and looked after (hydrated given pain relief and antibiotics among other things), 100% of burials need to be safe, and 100% of contacts need to be traced. That represents a huge task ahead of the stalwart healthcare, aid and many other support workers who have been facing Ebola virus every day for months and months.

The time between total case doublings.
For 4 doublings in a row it took a month or so, but the most
recent doubling took 44-days. 

Click on image to enlarge.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) and the human desire to see the worst...

Criticism is easier from up here!
There are those who just seem to enjoy hoping for the worst.

Yes, I'm othering "those people" - I'm invoking a "them" category because their outlook is just too alien for me to understand. I can respect and often understand other points of view, different beliefs and skin colours, clothing styles - all manner of things. But I just cannot understand those who seem to be filled with a macabre desire to see pain and suffering triumph over efforts to defeat it. 

Some of us are lucky enough to live in a free country and write our every little thought and feeling down to share with the world. I'm doing that now. Some use that privilege to say 'I told you so'. There is no room in the lives of some people for mistake, misstep or shades of grey. It's ones and zeroes, yes or no, all or nothing. The binary belief of those so self-assured in their personal opinions that they don't need to look around or experience for themselves any of those roles they criticize; they just know. They can just tell.

Are these personal-views-made-public all that destructive? Maddening though they may be, they probably don;t do a lot of damage, no. Nonetheless I thought it worth writing my own opinion about a related example in a recent opinion piece posted by the New York Post, addressing some aspects of that Ebola virus epidemic you may have heard about during 2014. It's the one causing>18,000 cases (and growing), >6,800 deaths, collapses of already minuscule health infrastructure, deaths of many key healthcare workers, potentially disastrous impacts on birthing, schooling and vaccination programs and bans on festive season gatherings.

The NYP article was entitled "The great Ebola lie � Outbreak hyped for funding & media attention". 


No hype there though. 


The author, Michael Fumento, seemed disappointed and a little angry about a few things. These included:
  • that EVD deaths had not reached HIV's 35 million
    That's a really good thing in case you were wondering. This use of an HIV statistic is a bit off though; AIDS is not an acute disease but an acute public health emergency was what the WHO quote referenced. Sure-I'm just playing with words. Also worth remembering that EVD acutely kills >70% of those we know have been infected during the 2014 epidemic. A bit different from the course some pathogens chart. 
    The particular choice of a citation for that WHO quote was also interesting. Firstly, the quote had been used some weeks earlier but secondly the next sentence from the original quote was not present in The Week's article source yet it adds even more context by stating that "Never before in recorded history has a biosafety level four pathogen infected so many people so quickly, over such a broad geographical area, for so long". Together, that does paint a kind of unique picture.
  • that EVD did not attain a rate of 10,000 cases per week, starting in the first week of December.
    Also, really good.
    The models have been discussed around social media and in the scientific literature for a while. For example, articles most recently in Nature and in the PNAS discuss how predictive models provide much needed guidance for planning the scale of a satisfactory intervention and predicting as well as gauging the impact of those interventions...among other things. Oh, and that 10,000 cases number was not pulled out of thin air at a press conference, it and more dire predictions can be found in other models including those discussed in Science, the Lancet Infectious Diseases, here and here, the New England Journal of Medicine, PLoS Currents|Outbreaks here and here and the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly. And elsewhere, if one asks around.
  • that 2014's EVD epidemic had already peaked by mid-October when the WHO held a media conference.
    But if you look at more recent data from WHO - their weekly numbers are plotted below - it's pretty clear nothing but Nigeria had peaked. Later data shows that cases were still adding up in Liberia and in fact still are raging in Sierra Leone. Cases in Guinea seem to wax and wane and export travelling cases to other countries fairly consistently. The US was happening and Mali yet to happen. 


Weekly Ebola virus disease (EVD) suspect+probable+confirmed cases by
WHO reporting week, and country.

Click on image to enlarge.
Most of the author's apparent anger seems directed at WHO but also other "big public health" including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The main guts of the article reduce down to...
You�ve been lied to, folks. For months.
But "lie" is specific and well-defined word. Oxford defines a lie as... 
An intentionally false statement
So in the author's opinion, the WHO & the CDC and perhaps others, each conspired by making conscious decisions to lie to the world and promote hysteria in order to...ummm....be rewarded with "billions of dollars"? BigPublicHealths' endgame was really just to make a buck from all that extra funding (much/most of which still hasn't materialized) by hyping up history's biggest ever EVD epidemic.

Or is it more realistic to see it for what it actually was; a (delayed) effort to try and light a fire under a sluggish international community? 


Perhaps all those dollars were part of a costed (perhaps using models?) proposal for a suitable response to fully shut down the epidemic and remove Ebola virus humans in West Africa before everyone gives up? Could it really be that simple? Yup. It sure could. Because a response to an outbreak, even when not in a rich Western nation, is an expensive and big deal. In rich Western nations, it's a lot more expensive and, judging by the response to a couple of cases in the United States, a much bigger deal. So I'm really stumped about the focus for the angst; perhaps there is a deeper reason in the NYP article that I simply missed by being simple. Naah, that's not it.

It's already been said, but just to repeat the point; disease modelling uses the numbers we have to predict what the numbers will be. The numbers we have are already old and cannot tell us how bad things could get. Bodies in the street give us an innate sense of bad, but models put brackets around that in order for cheque signers to get a quantifiable understanding of just how bad things will be tomorrow, next week or next year. Models predict what could be if nothing happens to change the trends extrapolated from the numbers we have in hand. Modelers have no qualms about saying they produce predictions. Models can also do some other stuff like predict how things could improve if we provide help, teach, support, learn and change our habits. In Ebolaville, the models were one part of the support underpinning a new message of urgency  that, it was hoped, would stir a slumbering international awareness - jolt it to life - and elicit the kind of response that, at least partly, eventuated. 

Were we lied to by bigPublicHealth so they could get a huge payday? No, of course we weren't. But we were shown what could come to pass if no funding appeared. Keep in mind that "funding" also includes resources-in-kind such as:


  • labs
  • vehicles
  • planes
  • food
  • antibiotics
  • oral (nasogastric and intravenous) rehydration solution
  • pain relief
  • personal protective equipment
  • awareness & advertising campaigns
  • phones and better comms for reporting results
  • bleach
  • water
  • treatment units
  • healthcare workers 
And despite the assurances of the author of the NYP article, there are a few past epidemics that have been contained, not by simply disappearing, but because of the heroic efforts of many in public health and patient care roles all over the world....and often with lots of money. Some epidemics have been nipped in the bud before they could bloom beyond an outbreak, thanks to dedicated people...and money. 

Wouldn't it be great if our public health could be protected for free? Sorry. Never gonna happen. The truth about Ebola in 2014 is that we may well have avoided the loss of many of the thousands of souls gone too soon, if we had just got the messages, awareness and money flowing sooner. But we'll never know that for sure.

Anyway, this is my opinion piece.  

WHO Media Release: Sierra Leone reacts swiftly in the face of desperate need

I am reprinting in full, with permission, what I think is a really well written "story behind the numbers". These stories provide invaluable context around the various individual human and community tragedies that are constantly occurring during this epidemic. They also highlight the many difficulties faced by those trying to help people, track and contain spread and and collate all the numbers. Those numbers may be dispassionate in their quantification of aspects of the epidemic, but they are so important to guide timely aid to the right areas and at the right scale

Freetown 10 December 2014 - Racing to fact check an ominous spike in Ebola cases from the remote diamond district of Kono in eastern Sierra Leone, bordering Guinea, a World Health Organization rapid response team found a worse-than-expected scene. WHO and the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) joined forces with the Sierra Leone National Ebola Response Center (NERC) and Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MoHS) to sound the alarm and are now rallying all-comers in a massive build up to contain this burgeoning Ebola outbreak which ran the risk of continuing to grow and remaining hidden as world attention focuses on urban centers.

�Our team met heroic doctors and nurses at their wits end, exhausted burial teams and lab techs, all doing the best they could but they simply ran out of resources and were overrun with gravely ill people,� explains Dr Olu Olushayo, WHO National Coordinator, Ebola Epidemic Response. �In districts like Kono, with moderate transmission confined to limited villages and chiefdoms, the best chance of eliminating transmission is through aggressive and comprehensive case investigation and contact tracing,� he said. Scattered villages in 8 of the 15 chiefdoms are affected.

Reacting on intel from the Ministry of Health of Sierra Leone, WHO sent a seasoned field epidemiologist to Kono 10 days ago to tease out whether reported Ebola cases told the whole story. Cases go unreported for a variety of reasons and are exacerbated when overwhelmed and under-resourced frontline workers are unable to reach remote areas to get the truth from reluctant villagers. The surveillance officers had no vehicles. WHO and CDC quickly sent more investigators and rugged trucks.

They uncovered a grim scene. In 11 days, 2 teams buried 87 bodies, including a nurse, an ambulance driver, and a janitor drafted into removing bodies as they piled up at the only area hospital, ill-equipped to deal with the dangerous pathogen. In the 5 days before the team arrived, 25 people died in the hastily cordoned off section of the main hospital serving as a makeshift Ebola holding center.

As of 9 December 2014, this district of over 350 000 people officially has 119 reported cases. Upon hearing the WHO findings, Dr. Amara Jambai, MoHS Director of Disease Prevention and Control harkened a local saying to describe what remains yet to be discovered, "we are only seeing the ears of the hippo."

Help is arriving daily. The NERC and MoHS for the Government of Sierra Leone and UNMEER with WHO support are connecting ready-to-help partners with an all-out multi-agency response to critical needs on the ground. WHO field staff are sharing their expertise with surveillance investigators, community mobilizers, infection controllers, and coordinators. The doctors from Partners in Health and Wellbody Alliance who supported the overwhelmed holding center, are willing to stay on board to support care at the source in outlying health posts. The International Federation of the Red Cross will build a new Ebola Treatment Center on a tight timetable, while they disinfect the hospital with MoHS and create a temporary safe holding unit. The IFRC Kenema Ebola Treatment Center will take Kono patients until these solutions are in place. CDC has staff on the ground. UNMEER has lent it�s helicopters to the effort in support of the UN family (WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, WFP, and others) engaged in building up capacity for staff and volunteers through training, materials and logistical support. International Rescue Committee is supporting infection prevention activities in the district. Funders such as DIFD and USAID are making much of the fast response possible. The race is on in this frontier fight against the virus, as Ebola responders dash to get ahead of the epidemic rather than chasing its tail.

 

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